At 8.00 a.m. on April 20, 2013, a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck Lushan of Ya’an city in Sichuan Province. The old county town of Lushan was severely impacted, and most of the old tiled houses collapsed. It is heart-wrenching that another earthquake struck less than five years after the Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan.
People were again caught off guard because there was no official warning of an imminent earthquake hitting the area. Chinese earthquake experts have long claimed that earthquake prediction is a global problem, and their conclusion follows that “earthquakes are unpredictable.”
The Tangshan earthquake was accurately predicted
However, before this, the Tangshan earthquake that shocked the world on July 28, 1976, was “accurately predicted before the earthquake.” This revolution was revealed to the world in the book Tangshan Warning Record, written by Zhang Qingzhou, following a lengthy period of research and investigation.
The first person to predict that the Tangshan earthquake was imminent was Ma Xirong, a Kailuan Majiagou Seismic Station forecaster. Starting from May 28, 1976, Ma Xirong found that the earth’s resistivity value, which had been stable, began to drop rapidly. He stepped up his observations and calculations while observing the changes in groundwater and animals. To be cautious, Ma Xirong communicated with other seismic stations and finally confirmed that the monitoring results were correct.
On July 6, Ma Xirong officially issued an emergency forecast of powerful earthquakes in the short term to the State Seismological Bureau and the Hebei Province Seismological Bureau.
Officialdom did not want to hear anything about Tangshan
It was sheer negligence that Ma Xirong’s warning was not heeded or listened to by the “big people.” After eight days of dragging their feet, on July 14, the State Seismological Administration belatedly sent two experts in charge of geo-electricity from the Analysis and Forecasting Office. They checked the equipment and lines and then pointed out that interference caused the geo-resistivity drop.
Let us examine the conversation recorded in the Tangshan Warning Record between Ma Xirong and experts from the State Seismological Administration.
State expert: If we accept your opinion, wouldn’t Tangshan be destroyed in the earthquake?
Ma Xirong: That’s my opinion.
State expert: If it is a big earthquake, there will be many small earthquakes before it occurs.
Ma Xirong: What if a large earthquake occurs first, followed by a swarm of more minor earthquakes?
State expert: There has never been such an earthquake in the world.
Ma Xirong: Houtuqiao in Changli is a professional seismic station. Why is the shape of the curve so consistent with our station in the past two months?
State expert: The internal and external lines of the Houtuqiao seismic station are very chaotic, and now they do not admit that it is abnormal.
Ma Xirong: What about our seismic station?
State expert: Very good. I will send you some information later. Please study it carefully.
Re-reading this dialogue today is tantalizing and, at the same time, emotional. Experts are always accustomed to sitting back, arguing back and forth, and doing things according to the norms of books, peer pressure, fear, officialdom, or looking over their shoulders to protect their self-interests.
Suppose they could have factored in basic common sense and reality and carefully studied and weighed up the various and apparent anomalies predicted by Ma Xirong. Would hundreds of thousands of Tangshan people still sit back in harm’s way and wait for death to arrive by an earthquake?
Ma Xirong makes a final and forlorn plea
Something even more surprising happened. On July 26 and 27, the earth’s resistivity in Tangshan dropped sharply again. After much deliberation, at 6 p.m. on July 27, Ma Xirong picked up the phone once more and issued a strong earthquake forecast to the Seismological Office of the Kailuan Mining Bureau.
At this time, it was only 9 hours before the Tangshan earthquake struck. However, Ma Xirong’s alarm was once again ignored by those officials who neglected their duties. A human tragedy rarely seen in the world finally befell Tangshan, destroying hundreds of thousands of lives and properties. (Selected Essays Issue 1, 2006)
Following the Tangshan earthquake, the factual findings that Ma Xirong accurately predicted were kept hidden as “secrets” for more than 20 years. Few individuals were allowed to know the truth about the disaster.
People of Qinglong County have a merciful escape
The ferocious Tangshan earthquake struck at about 3.00 a.m. on July 28, 1976, killing hundreds of thousands of people in an instant. However, due to an extraordinary combination of factors, in the neighboring Qinglong Manchu Autonomous County, which borders Tangshan’s Qian’an, more than 180,000 houses were damaged in the earthquake, of which more than 7,300 collapsed. There were no fatalities except one person (out of 470,000) who died directly from the earthquake. This merciful outcome was entirely due to the science of advanced earthquake prediction and the effective earthquake prevention measures taken by concerned and diligent officials in Qinglong County.
Heroes of Qinglong: Wang Chunging and Ran Guangqi
In mid-July 1976, Wang Chunqing, who was in charge of earthquake work at the Qinglong County Science and Technology Commission, attended the National Earthquake Work Conference in Tangshan. At the meeting, Wang Changmin, an expert from the Analysis and Forecasting Office of the State Seismological Administration, said that powerful earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or above might occur in North China within the next year or two.
According to the earthquake data summarized in various places, there were seven significant anomalies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan-Bohai region, and there may be further earthquakes from July 22 to August 5. Wang Chunqing, on learning this, hurried back to Qinglong County to report to the leaders. Ran Guangqi, then secretary of the Qinglong County Party Committee, withstood the pressure from officialdom, took significant risks, and decided to report to the Standing Committee of the County Party Committee and issue an emergency earthquake forecast to the entire county.
Emergency measures proposed and implemented
On the evening of July 24, 1976, the Qinglong County Party Committee held a standing committee meeting. The following day, the director of the Science and Technology Commission, entrusted by the county party committee, made a report on the imminent strike of the earthquake at a meeting of more than 800 cadres at the county level. At the meeting, it was decided that each commune would send two cadres home to take charge of earthquake prevention! At the same time, the meeting also proposed the following:
- Everyone must be notified of the earthquake before July 26.
- Cadres must stick to their posts in the office and are not allowed to stay at home or handle personal matters.
- Immediately start the earthquake prevention and publicity work.
- Each commune and each village must set up an earthquake command office to transmit information to neighboring municipalities.
- Ensure 24-hour communication, reporting, and patrolling, and maintain contact with neighboring counties.
- Use various publicizing methods: broadcasting, workshop publicity, telephone notification, and blackboard newspaper.
- Keep doors and windows open; do not cook or eat in the house; if possible, sleep outdoors in an earthquake-proof shed.
On July 26, at 8 a.m., all cadres from the 43 communes in Qinglong County arrived at their posts. The whole county of Qinglong was in a state of imminent earthquake preparedness. Earthquake announcements were repeated throughout the villages, simple earthquake-resistant sheds could be found everywhere, and village patrol teams inspected preparedness twice daily.
On July 27, the eve of the calamity, the Qinglong County Middle School earthquake research team found that many weasels were uncharacteristically running around during the day and reached a climax that day. The little black bugs that usually lie at the bottom of the water were floating back and forth on the water’s surface. All signs heralded imminent calamity.
Ran Guangqi directed the county to assist with ‘all its might’
On the evening of July 27, Qinglong County’s loudspeaker broadcast an earthquake alarm. Ran Guangqi sat in a tent and directed the entire county to assist in the earthquake with all its might… In this way, the people of Qinglong escaped the catastrophe of the Tangshan earthquake.
In the aftermath of the Tangshan earthquake, Qinglong became the rear hospital of Tangshan for some time and saved the lives of many wounded and injured people.
United Nations recognition
In 1996, Dr. Cole, a United Nations official, presented a commemorative medal to Ran Guangqi on behalf of the United Nations. Article 16 of the “Law of the People’s Republic of China on Earthquake Prevention and Disaster Mitigation” stipulates that the State implement a unified release system for earthquake forecasts. In this case, no administrative unit, research unit, observation station, scientist, or any individual belonging to the earthquake system had the right to release information about earthquake forecasting.
Defied the law and saved their people
From that Article 16 point of view, Wang Chengmin defied that law and heroically raised the alarm to save his people from the fatal horrors of the earthquake. Likewise, Ran Guangqi, as the secretary of the county party committee, purposefully disobeyed the same law and took personal risks and responsibilities to save his people from the catastrophe.
However, in a society where black and white are reversed, Wang Changmin, as an earthquake expert, dared to speak the truth. At the same time, Ran Guangqi overlooked the political consequences, respected the scientific data, and prioritized the interests of the people’s lives. Such experts and public servants deserve the highest respect in the world. They are heroes who defied an insane law and saved the lives of countless people.
The moral vacuum remains
While precious time for learning lessons rolls on, has anything been learned during all this time? The earth-shattering catastrophe of 48 years ago has been re-run. The devastating Wenchuan and Ya’an earthquakes brought events into the same vein again. Why did these tragedies happen so unexpectedly and so quickly? Indeed, there were strong markers and indications.
Following decades of ongoing scientific and technological advancement, can it credibly be held that China’s official earthquake prediction capability is lagging so drastically behind? Or, is it that we no longer have a Wang Chengmin-style expert who dares to rumble and risk his career to speak the truth?
Translated by Chua BC
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